A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
